Tag Archives: Redskins

NFC East Prediction 2011

This time last year I was talking about the new era under Kevin Kolb and how the Eagles could well be a team in transition. Now, Kolb’s career in Philly is over. Blink and you’ll have missed it!

Was last year a transitional season? I think it was meant to be. I don’t think that many Eagles fans truly believed we’d get to the playoffs and one of the main reasons we did was that the NFC East was in such a mess. I didn’t expect McNabb to crash and burn so spectacularly in Washington and who could have foreseen Dallas challenging Carolina for last place in the NFL until their form picked up under Kitna?

The other main reason that the Eagles won the NFC East and marched into the playoffs was the star reborn, Mr Michael Dwayne Vick.

When Vick signed for the Eagles, I had a #7 jersey shipped over to the UK right away. I knew he was going to be a back-up for McNabb and I knew about his previous problems, but he was still one of the most exciting players ever to play the game and he was an Eagle! At the end of that first season there were talks of a trade and then Kolb was named starter, but I still wore my #7 jersey. Then week one came, Kolb was KO’d and Vick took over the team. And how!

There were certainly areas, especially on defense, where the Eagles were lacking. The secondary was decimated and it really started to show as the playoffs loomed. Even the offense had problems. Short yardage situations were a nightmare and Vick often took it upon himself to singlehandedly make first downs. This led to injury and meant that when I flew in for the Falcons game I saw Kolb rather than Vick at QB, not that I complained after his performance that day!

A stronger, faster, meaner Mike Vick dragged the team right into the playoffs and it appears that the Eagles’ Front Office were as impressed with #7 as the rest of the world. This off season, they’ve gone out and spent dollars. Lots of them. It’s almost as if they realized that in Vick they have something very special, a Quarterback capable of winning the big one. If this was a game of poker, the Eagles just went “all in”.

It’s difficult to predict the future, but last season I was only 5 games out when looking at the NFC East as a whole. How did I do it? Well, I figure that the most relevant season in history is the last one, so I’ve awarded 10 points for each win during 2010. This gives the Eagles 100 points (10 wins x 10 points). Then in 2009, I’ve awarded 9 points per win which means that the Eagles bank another 99 points for their 11 wins. I’ve followed this all the way back to 2001 where the 11 wins are worth 1 point each, so 11 in all. Adding the points for each season together gives me a total of 540, but in order to convert this to a single season win record I need to divide by 55 (1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 + 7 + 8 + 9 + 10). I then end up with 9.82 (540 / 55) and so from the record of the last 10 NFL seasons, I predict that the Eagles will end up 10-6 in 2011.

Interestingly, the stats have come up with exactly the same prediction for the NFC East as it did last year:-

Eagles 10-6
Giants 9-7
Cowboys 9-7
Redskins 7-9

Of course, what actually happened last year was:-

Eagles 10-6
Giants 10-6
Cowboys 6-10
Redskins 6-10

The prediction for the Eagles was spot on, the Giants and Redskins were just 1 game out and even historical data couldn’t predict the horrible mess in Dallas (haha!).

Eagles 10-6 in 2011? I’d be disappointed with that, to be honest. With the hype surrounding this team and the massive upgrade in personnel, I believe we should be looking realistically at between 12 and 14 wins. The Giants are likely to be the biggest threat in the division, 9-7 or maybe 10-6 for them. The Cowboys… well… can we dare wish for more comedy from Jerry’s circus? I’m sure all their fans are predicting 16-0 like they do every year, but it would be a big turnaround if the managed a winning season at all. And the poor Redskins with Rex Grossman leading them. Can they get 7 wins? They do have some pretty average teams on their schedule, but I still think that 7 wins will be a stretch.

I’m not too confident that the stats system will be as accurate this year, but then I didn’t expect the ‘transitional’ Eagles to achieve 10-6 in 2010. As it happens I was spot on. Only time will tell. Well, time and #7 staying healthy for the season.

Cheers from the UK and GO BIRDS!

EaglesFanCast 105 – Eagles Schedule 2011

After a few months’ hiatus, the show is back. Jason from Bleeding Green Nation and SB Nation Philly is on tonight and we talk mostly about the newly-released 2011 Eagles schedule. It’s so early to truly evaluate the schedule and the Eagles chances this year, especially with the uncertainty of the current NFL lockout and negotiations. Jason and Chuck touch on the lockout, and the trickle down issues having to do with player conditioning, finances and more.

Overall, we both feel that the schedule looks like a challenging one, but can be one that the Eagles can excel and prove themselves in a very public eye.  Five of the games are primetime, with three more in the later slot, so half of their schedule are nationally televised.  Eagles fans will get to see plenty of their team no matter where they are.

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NFC East Prediction 2010 – Review

Back in September, I attempted to predict the 2010 NFC East regular season standings based on the previous decades’ records for each of the teams. You can read the original article by clicking here.

After much number crunching, I came up with:-

Eagles    10-6
Giants     9-7
Cowboys    9-7
Redskins   7-9

How accurate did this method turn out to be? Well, what we actually ended up with is:-

Eagles    10-6
Giants    10-6
Cowboys   6-10
Redskins  6-10

As you can see, the Eagles were bang on form. I thought that we may have been facing a year of rebuilding with Kevin Kolb as Quarterback (who didn’t?!) but he was knocked out of the game in week 1 and Vick 2.0 stepped in. Kolb still played his part by dismantling the Atlanta Falcons, but the Eagles quickly became Vick’s team and flourished. But for Vick’s injury and the strange last 2 weeks, we could quite easily have been looking at a much higher win ratio and #1 seeding. Very positive going into the playoffs with, hopefully, a fully fit and rested #7.

The Giants ended a game better than the prediction. They didn’t have massive personnel changes in key areas of the team and it was no surprise that they were very close to the predicted 9-7. It did take a ‘miracle’ to keep them down, but we’ll take that!

The Cowboys were the big losers in the division, falling 3 wins behind the predicted 9-7. There’s no doubt that Quarterback injuries hurt the team and they actually recovered from a disastrous start to the season under Jon Kitna of all people! I remember when he won MVP for Barcelona Dragons in the NFL Europe “World Bowl” 1997. He’s certainly been around for a while! Poor coaching, penalties and dropped catches all contributed to a poor season for Dallas in the year that they were going to win the Superbowl in their own stadium. Really, Jerry?! That sort of arrogance often comes back to bite you in the butt.

There were Quarterback problems in the Capital too. All those questions about the McNabb trade appeared to be answered in Andy Reid’s favor this year as the Redskins, who I predicted to achieve 7-9, didn’t even manage that. Whether McNabb didn’t know the 2 minute drill, wasn’t fit enough or simply not good enough, few could argue that the Eagles missed him this year. Yes, the Redskins’ O-Line is a debacle and maybe McNabb will bounce back in a better team next year, but this season his performances were disappointing. He finished with 14 touchdowns, 15 interceptions and a rating of 77.1.

In total, my predictions were 5 games out across the division which isn’t bad at all. Especially taking into the account the Quarterback changes/issues/controversies. I even got the 4 teams in the correct order!

I’m not sure how I could work out a post season formula to predict the playoffs, so I’ll just say this. Let’s bring it home for Jerome!

Cheers from the UK and GO BIRDS!

EaglesFanCast 97 – On The Road To Vicktory

LANDOVER, MD - NOVEMBER 15: Michael Vick  of the Philadelphia Eagles makes a break past Brian Orakpo  of the Washington Redskins on November 15, 2010 at FedExField in Landover, Maryland. (Photo by Chris McGrath/Getty Images)

Our Philadelphia Eagles put on an historic display to an amazed football fanbase the world over on Monday Night Football, and defeat the Washington Redskins 59-28.  The Eagles showed poise, maturity, skill and discipline on every side of the ball for a critical NFC East game, and dominated from the first play of the game.  It was truly an exciting game, with twelve touchdowns scored in total, with the Eagles scoring six of their eight in the first half alone.  The Defense dominated as well, not allowing the Redskins to convert a third down the entire game, and despite Donovan McNabb throwing for two touchdowns, the Eagles D intercepted him three times.  But the true star of this game was Eagles quarterback Michael Vick.  Vick, in this game alone, completed his transformation into one of the most dangerous players in the NFL.  From this point forward, all other teams that face the Eagles will have to prepare unlike for any other game they played before. Overall it was an incredible game to watch, and ranks as one of the most impressive Eagles victories in franchise history.

What we discussed:

  • Eagles destroy the Redskins 59-28 in Washington on Monday Night Football
  • So much went right, on all sides of the ball
  • Multiple records were set in the game, Vick was named NFC Offensive Player of the Week for the second week in a row, and the Football Hall of Fame requested Vick’s game jersey
  • Michael Vick’s transformation to the player he is now is nothing short of amazing
  • The Eagles Defense shut down many parts of the Redskins Offense, despite the four touchdowns given up
  • We talk about some of the team statistics, thanks to the work of Bleeding Green Nation
  • The Eagles next opponent is just as big, and is for sole first place in the NFC East, at home against the New York Giants
  • Some fantasy football talk

With smiles on our faces:

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EaglesFanCast 96 – Eagles Beat Refs

Andy Reid at 13The Philadelphia Eagles overcome a horribly-officiated game and beat the Indianapolis Colts at Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday. More than Colts quarterback Peyton Manning playing poorly, more than Eagles quarterback Michael Vick playing well, was the topic of the referees and how quickly they are tossing that little yellow flag through the air.  We recognize that there is extra pressure from the NFL now to protect players during the game, and it has exposed itself as bad calls that could have easily changed the course of this particular game in more than one instance. Despite all of this, and more than a dozen Eagles penalties overall, the Eagles win, and it may be a huge momentum builder going into next week’s Monday Night Football game against the Washington Redskins.

What we discussed:

  • The Eagles are now 5-3 after beating the refs Indianapolis Colts in Philadelphia
  • How many horrible calls did the refs make? Let us count the ways
  • Eagles go to Washington to take on Donovan McNabb and the Redskins on Monday Night Football, no pressure, Donovan
  • We want a huge game, a definitive win on national TV
  • We go back to talking about the refereeing after some emails from Dennis
  • Reminiscing about some notorious Eagles fan stories as we’ve experienced it
  • Some laughable EFC Fantasy Football results

Here we are:

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